tv Fast Money CNBC November 5, 2013 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
largely. nasdaq picked up about three points. that will do it for "closing bell" tonight. i want to thank everybody for having us on their equities trading floor this afternoon. fast money begins right now. stay with cnbc. >> live from the nasdaq market site in new york city's times square. the twitter atm. are investors selling other internet stocks to make room in their portfolios for twitter. we will tell you how to trade it and art pop. hold on to your warhols. we will show you the warning signs of a bubble in fine art.
>> earnings in revenue did beat in the third quarter. >> melissa, the numbers were better than expected but they were not as high as many people were hoping and that's why the stock is getting slammed after hours. let's start first with earnings per share. the street was expecting 11 cents per share. there were some people, a whisper number of 17 cents per share so that explains some of the disappointment there. they did beat the street, earning $603 million. a couple of numbers within the numbers that are getting a lot of attention. let's talk about deliveries in the third quarter. tesla delivered 5500 model s vehicles. most were expecting the deliveries to come in at 5700. we should break down that being
4500 in north america so the delivery is not as high as many people were expecting. on the manufacturing side, gross margins were better than expected. most thought they would be around 18, 19%. and the production rate is now at 550 model s vehicles per week. that is up from 500 a week where it was earlier this summer. what you're looking at is tesla delivering over 6000 in the fourth quarter and raising its full year delivery guidance to 21,500. all of those numbers better than what their previous guidance was. but not what many on the street were expecting or many investors were peblgtsing and that's why the stock is getting slammed. it will be interesting to see what his comments are. he will definitely have some comments about where they are.
in the fourth quarter and into next year. >> just look at a revenue beat and a good gross margin number there. what happened in the expense line there? >> it's going to continue going up. the biggest problem that they will be facing. perhaps in china or europe, what you will see is them spending more. their rhode island is up 25% sequentially. all of this together has a number of people saying wait a second. we're not going up to the moon with deliveries and everything else. frankly people should not have expected them to go off to the moon, but that's what is holding the stock down after hours. the target what was? >> 25%.
and most believe they will get to that gross margin of 25%. >> that gross margin we are basically looking -- i haven't been able to extrapolate how much lower that would be. that is excludeing the zero emissions. >> so basically if you look at the other car companies, the best car company out of the whole mix is up to like 5 or 7%. people are getting a little nervous about deliveries. >> that's the expectation. the problem is for the investors as you guys are well aware of,
so much hype has been built into thinking these guys will deliver at least 6,000 in the third quarter. if not, 65 00 vehicles. if people were getting a little ahead of themselves. >> we will check back in with you a little later on. phil lebeau joining us on tesla. phil had it right. everything was priced swoo the stock, not to mention a 26% short interest. >> all of the numbers are really good. if i had this quarter, i would have stayed with my bull case because it all looks really good. i thought the delivery numbers were great. margins are good. deliveries going forward good. and the point that karen mentioned about the eps, all of those expenses were factored in.
a lot of people talked about the cost they would occur. i think nothing surprised me. >> who cares. this is all about growing revenues and cranking out more models. what i said yesterday, which i think people are not focused on. and 60 times by 2027. they will deliver 6,000 vehicles next year? that's not enough. that's what we're talking about. great company, great innovator. reputable brand. great. the valuation of the stock is absurd and if you look at what is going on with the trading of the stock. institutional ownership is dwindle i
dwindling that's a stock that i don't want to own. >> tesla lost more in the month of october than where it started the year year at. mike, i want to go to you in terms of what you saw today in the options market. >> tesla has been fairly active. i would simply add one thing to what tim was saying. this company was trading 40%, a car company that is going sell close to 6 million cars on the year, you realize what that valuation is really talking about. this is a company that needs to grow by orders of magnitude to justify the multiple of where it's currently trading and i
don't see any chance. >> let's get more. >> joining us today from chicago. ben, great to have you with us. you downgraded the stock again at. >> when you look at the report, does it make you more bearish on the stock at this point? >> no, i think that our downgrade was based on valuation. we thought there was a lot of things priced into the stock. the whisper number we warned about the past couple of weeks including on this show, we heard numbers as high as 7,000 and i think people got over their skis. i think they had a great quarter. they are starting from scratch, almost, but they're not going to do it overnight. that's what we are seeing in the
aftermarkets here. >> eli is an innovator. we all agree on that. how do you blow out those production numbers. he is going to take a long hard look at this. do you get to that number that impresses the street sometime soon? >> i think over time, i think as you introduce guidance for 2014, i think volumes will be up substantially. they can produce up to 40 or 50,000 cars there with that one line. i think demand is strong but for now it's a wait and see and the stock has had a lot of momentum that is broken right now. >> at this point, with a 10% decline rrks you more inclined to say it might be a decent opportunity to buy this dip? >> all i heard was bearishness. >> that's good because all i hear is the opposite. >> what sort of price would you look to say maybe now is the
time? your price target is 178 or so? >> 187. >> that is based on 2016 numbers. i want to wait and see. i have said 150 in the past. i want to let it settle a bit. >> you believe this is a company that has fantastic technology? i have been bearish on this stock as well. ed. >> i think the margin that all the bears out there, i do think the margins matters. that is profitability. as we see the margin grow, as we think it will grow, that's the
number in this quarter was very nice to see. people want to see the outlook for deliveries for 2013 raised and we didn't get the numbers that were out there, the whisper numbers. >> ben, we're going to leave it out there. in terms of the play book you sold part of your position going into the earnings. tim said it was running out of momentum. i was afraid of a big number. >> now what? >> i wait now. i think 140. but i do believe that i'm going to be buying it back.
>> it wasn't that i was shorting it down to 85. that was the point where the stock went parabollic. you start to get a semiblens of sanity. >> we will continue to monitor the story. tesla just off of the lows. we will check back in for the conference call comments. real estate zillow, the company beating the street here. hey, diana. >> that's right. zillow reported q3 revenue, beating the street's expectations. it recorded a narrower than expected loss. the street was expecting eight cents. a one time tax benefit relating to the acquisition of street easy. in august, traffic reached a record 63.7 million monthly unique users on mobile and web.
average monthly unique users during the quarter, up 69% yooefr. zillo is going ever more mobile. visits to zillow by a mobile device more than doubled and in august, 321 million homes were viewed on zillow via a mobile device. melissa? >> thank you very much. what's the trade there? >> i'm shocked at the level we are trading at. traded higher, has held 80 now for a couple of months. huge short interest. stupid valuation and this stock is not moving in the afterhours as far as i can tell. i do think you can be long the stock but given all of those met tricks i'm shocked that it's not going anywhere tonight. >> well, ultimately, what is the size of this market. that to me is the question.
people are assuming this is different and the auto markets are different than twitter and facebook. i think you have to question if you can demand this kind of multiple. >> coming up next, falling prices at the pump and crude oil below 94 bucks a barrel. just how much do oil prices have to fall before it's time to start betting big on the consumer. plus steering investors away from the stock. how many dinged their credibility. back in two minutes. change engineering in dubai, aluminum production in south africa, and the aerospace industry in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 70% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus
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shares of the team retailer abercrombie & fitch. reported prelim results that fell short of forecast full year profit. and they did reaffirm their full year guidance. back over to you. >> thanks so much. >> listen, mentioned last night that valuation is stretched here. i don't think it is really moving here. but i think there is still momentum behind this stock. i wouldn't be racing out to get out right here. >> and big decline here. >> big decline. we saw it a couple of months ago. they seem to have lost their way. disappointing announcement. >> it appears that consumers are
getting an early holiday gift. there is a triple dose of rel f relief. the average price is now under $3 a gallon. crude is down to five month lows. veteran retail analyst is watching the impact on retailers. dana, great to speak with you. >> nice to see you. thank you for having me. >> at what point can you say this is an effective tax break for the consumer? >> in all the research that we have done, we have never really seen a clear number to say this is what moves the needle. that's when it seems to be the most impact and could benefit companies like the dollar stores and walmarts of the world and some of the restaurants out there. >> so below that benchmark, are you getting more excited for some of the lower end retailers and the impact it could have for
them. you are seeing at regular retail. the theme of holiday 2013 and what we're seeing is promotions are up and margins are down. if gasoline is coming down, it gives that middle income consumer more dollars to spend on discretionary. >> do you think it makes any difference going higher up the food chain to the wealthier customers? >> i don't think it makes a difference. i think the wealthier customers are going to spend no matter what. we certainly saw that today. >> let's talk about coors. it's obviously some good news over the last week or so. obviously the quarter was great but this stock has been parabollic. >> i think it is. operating margins are higher. great sales growth over in europe. in the u.s., both wholesale and
retail are growing. and they have geography working in their favor. >> and lastly, in terms of the retailers that will benefit the most from lower gas prices, which are they and have they reflected at all this potential boost? >> no, you still have more room left. it could be the dollar stores like the dollar trees and the dollar generals or discounters like walmart and target. >> that's another place. there is not a lot i like when i go into this holiday season. that is, i think the pressure technically there is six fewer days this holiday season. it will make the comps not look that great. you have got the ceo after the bell saying the top line operating numbers -- operating environment looks very difficult but that the younger consumers are not spending as much either. you are seeing a lot of unemployed youth and this is is
a situation that does not get better into the holidays. no one wants to look at dekkers. dekkers probably has another 10%. >> where did i hear that? from you. >> that's right. >> next expecting better results. it hit the stock. comments that did send shares lower. >> it really was sort of a disaster. there was two major things that were the reason. they really overestimated the week. as recently as about a month or so ago they go lower but this was lower than that. maybe they didn't have a handle
on it. >> ether way that's bad. >> either way it's bad. the second thing that i found really disconcerting is they guided to $3 for 2015. that's a discretion for yesterday. so we really backed off of that. that was very disconcerting. so here you have a team that used to get a cred -- that used to get a premium. now their credibility is dinged. all of that makes for a disappointing quarter. no need to rush in. it is not surprising. >> not only are you disappointed but you think the team may have been disingenuous. >> and you are long. >> i am long. buy a little here and if it comes in, i will buy more but this call was bad enough that i don't want to buy more right now. i think definitely the stock would break 20 today. i'm not really sure what to do.
generally like the name but it was a very disappointing call. >> and you wonder why i'm a conspiracy theorist. >> it makes it very interesting. >> that's what we do here. >> is that what you call it? >> coming up next, clear skies are dark clouds ahead for solar city. later on, it's a cash round of twiper. what about several internet stocks that might be feeling the pain? and should you buy any on the pull backs? up next. (announcer) at scottrade, our clients trade and invest
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welcome back. take a look at the decline that we're watching. tesla now down a full 11%. how do you know that the momentum is actually gone? why is a break to 140 okay to buy? you see it, it's got to stabilize and it's not the first shot. it has to bounce. that's what support does. if support breaks then you have to go for the next lower level which is 125. >> it held the 170s, too. >> that's why i'm 2/ out.
>> it's got to prove itself. >> if you're a retail investor, be careful here. this stock can have tremendous swings. we started talking about the stocks. >> in case you missed some of the top moments, here is a rapid fire recap in tonight's executive edge. >> when people really look through our earnings they will see some interesting things which i think will buck the trend about what people have been thinking about. program automation has gone up and pricing has gone up as well. >> i think you are in a five year cycle that will be bumpy.
>> we're going to have to see much faster growth before it makes sense to raise short term rates. >> they asked us to ask you. >> no. no. >> that's a question that you need to ask the cashman. >> no. >> i think we are a better partner and now it's up to us to execute. it's not about us. >> it's been pretty solid both in debt capital markets and equity capital markets. i's not robust because the economy is still a little slow but solid. >> tim seymour. >> the question should be did you ever take performance enhancing drugs.
>> we don't need to ask that question. the question people now say is to maybe be more hawkish. by march we will more than know that answer. >> aol is really, nobody talks about it. it has been on fire over the last month. you wouldn't think that aol has a big short interest. there is probably still more room in this rally. >> all right. let's hit pops and drops. big movers of the session. >> this reported earnings are disappointed by a couple of cents. for the balance of the year this thing is trading at a little over 18 times. you might as well be playing with the winner. >> these guys just keep chugging
along. they have done a fantastic job with the business. nice job. >> disappointing quarter. had trouble with 50. tried it again. had trouble. now looks like it wants to trade back down to $40. i don't think the story yet is broken. >> pop for aol, pop 8%. >> this is one of those things, also, you don't want to buy the stocks straight up. it could have a little more juice in the tank left but i would wait until it stabilizes at this level and use the low as your entry point. >> drop for royal bank of scotland. >> i think there is a lot of pressure. and those that were accused of rigging the interest rate options. you have another place where it is drig up. i don't think you stay here. if europe is cracking, go here and short. >> >> mckenzie didn't like what
she read in a new biography of her husband. in a one star review, she called the book a lopsided and misleading portrait of the company. the book has received rave reviews from critics so there is no telling who gets the last laugh. >> good. >> still the tesla conference call getting underway. headlines on how toy tomorrow's open. and later, is the world of art going up in bubbles? literally? the details behind that story, next.
timmy made a good point. just seems point. wait for it to trade. see how it behaves there. a very well defined low and they have something to trade against. closes on the lows and then you have to re-evaluate. >> with a stock that is going from 1.93 to 1.40. >> see that, that -- maybe we will trade four or five times normal volume. you know what i seem saying? >> it went from 194.50. >> that's one day. put in a bottom. especially if it's on big bottom. there is more panic. >> so you might not agree with technicals in this name. >> he didn't believe it at all that time. >> but the point is there are
people that believe in this name. >> for now. >> when you see the support -- >> what happens when one guy fell out today. >> i think that the real question is here, momentum. how much did it play in the run up to the stock. >> when it rips through every support level that's out there. >> guys? >> take an elevator. it won't take stairs. >> you look at the chart. there is a lot of support levels where it did rally from. where everyone said traded down to 104. >> that's fair. everyone said it's going down to 50. it's going down to 194.
>> that was heated. >> this is the question on everybody's mind. >> there is is a very big difference in valuation. >> we want to go to phil lebeau here. >> hey, melissa. first question came out in terms of what's going on with your production raid and he came out and said we're production constrained, not demand constrained and the reason that tesla did not deliver more vehicles is because they are constrained by the supply of lithium ion battery cells that we have right now. with panasonic and at this point they are trying to get as many of these battery cells in so that they can make the battery packs and increase production. this is the natural evolution if you will of an electric car company needing to get more battery cells to make more battery packs to increase
production. the demand is there. the issue is whether or not we can get enough supply of these battery cells. >> phil, thanks so much. appreciate that. let's go to the broader markets. we will watch tesla of course. that trend could actualrily reverse. rebecca paterson, rebecca, great to see you. >> good to see you, too. >> you're looking into emerging markets and what's going to happen with the confirmation. >> we have been underweight all year. we still are today. that was a great thing for our portfolio for most of the year since september when we had the surprise no taper. and we're sticking with that view. if he comes out next week and it has not gotten enough press her confirmation hearing will be
november fort, maybe until march or april next year? that's going to be a good signal, i think. or does she say i want to be credible? i don't want people to call me a dove? and we get something more hawkish than expected. in which case you want to hang on to your developed markets. >> so you make up a great point. 16 straight down weeks and yet you still have net $216 billion. these are numbers that i know very well. however. they have been constrained by the fed. so when you get back in where do you want to be? rsh i think we will. when we first get more tapering nervousness. we are going to get another
indigestion period for emergek markets and we see some better valuations, which ones do you focus on? >> mexico. >> mexico is a great name. i would be looking at policies going in the right direction. but you still get a nice yield pick up. you have got natural resources there which i think are going to help them. some of the emerging european markets, it's still a mess but relative improvement. some of those countries are doing well. you avoid the countries that have inflation problems. we have tapering. we will have higher rates, stronger dollar. that will hurt current account deficits. >> rebecca paterson. >> coming up next, ebay of latin america taking a breather. we will get the latest on that name after this break. the warning signs of why the art
world may be going into full bubble mode. [ female announcer ] it's time for the annual shareholders meeting. ♪ there'll be the usual presentations on research. and development. some new members of the team will be introduced. the chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. and you? well, you're the chief life officer. you just need the right professional to help you take charge. ♪ to help you take charge. explaining my moderate to severe so there i was again, chronic plaque psoriasis to another new stylist. it was a total embarrassment. and not the kind of attention i wanted. so i had a serious talk with my dermatologist about my treatment options. this time, she prescribed humira-adalimumab. humira helps to clear the surface of my skin by actually working inside my body. in clinical trials, most adults with moderate
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around the corner. making big bets that luxury retailers will kick it off on a high note. mike, what did you see? >> we saw some of the most unusual options volume that we have seen in any sector. michael kors traded over seven times. and then fossil traded by the end of the day more than 13 times its average daily volume. that after we saw some pretty solid results. >> and this was a new high for kors in today's session. already. >> it's interesting. the options traders seem to be believing that is what is going to continue. traders are betting it will be above that level by at least 80 cents.
135 calls also were the most active. and sometimes soon. >> all right. let's move on to the next trade. plenty of bubble talk. could the biggest bubble threat be actually painted right on the wall? a look at some red flags in the art market. >> last night they had a big auction. racked up $92 million in shares. and more than a third of the 62 lots failed to sell for the minimum. poet of them did not find buyers. finally that the art market may be breaking down but this is really a one off effect that probably will not affect next week's much be bigger contemporary art segment. that was about twice the
estimate. just in 2006. and this is a bargain. that was way below the estimate. and this was a cigar, a four inch piece of wood painted like a cigar went for one more one million. it's a $1 million cigar you can't even smoke. that may be a sign that the bubble rages on. this may be a sign. it may not be. we will just to have see later on. >> we're talking in toeltal, $1.6 billion at least expected to sell between this week and next week. the big nights are tuesday and wednesday night. well into the $500 million
range. >> is there a sense of where the weakness is coming from in terms of geography? >> the asian buyers were really there last night. when you look at these big pieces they were the asians on the phone. the weakness were overpriced not very good pieces of art. >> that's the issue. that's when you know there is is a bubble. but buyers are showing that they are a little more discerning right now. >> robert, thanks for stopping by. karen? >> sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. >> what do you think, guy? >> you know what i think? do we have that picaso kids pictures? he must have gotten teased miserably. look at those two. that's brutal.
>> where you look like that? >> horrible. not invited to parties and stuff? i wouldn't pay $5 for any of that stuff. insanity. >> karen, give me the trade. >> i'm long souther byes. the really big sales are coming up next. the contemporary art is where most of the action is. this is a different entity. financial restructuring. it is vulnerable and a trophy property that cannot be replicated. there is no other way to buy the art market. >> isn't it better if the sales don't go well next week and there might be pressure to do something from the activist side? >> that's a good point. >> without dan, would you be in the stock? >> probably not at this point. it is so vulnerable. >> and it has gone up a lot since he came in. >> would you be long in a bear
market? >> i don't know that it's totally 1 to 1 but it's high. i believe that story. >> coming up next, you tweet it we trade it. trading your tweets, next. ♪ [ bell ringing, applause ] five tech stocks with more than a 10%... change in after-market trading. ♪ all the tech stocks with a market cap... of at least 50 billion... are up on the day. 12 low-volume stocks... breaking into 52-week highs. six upcoming earnings plays... that recently gapped up. [ male announcer ] now the world is your trading floor. get real-time market scanning wherever you are with the mobile trader app. from td ameritrade. with the mobile trader app. at a ford dealer with a little q and a for fiona. tell me fiona, who's having a big tire event? your ford dealer. who has 11 major brands to choose from? your ford dealer. who's offering a rebate? your ford dealer. who has the low price tire guarantee,
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>> check in. market clash. the ebay of latin america. >> it is. and the shares are headed lower. that is after ecommerce company reported earnings short of wall street estimates. up around 70% so far this year entering that earnings number. so yes, there is profit taking. >> thanks. tim you're not in the name any more. >> it's a name like amazon. they are growing. i would stay in this name. i would not say it's going to break the 50. this is is a stock where you need to see it establish a base. >> three days to go until twitter debuts on its first day of trading.
we asked if investors are selling other internet stocks. take a look at the move in facebook. would you buy facebook on its pull back? >> i don't believe in the affect. the sell off is right after its earnings. i don't think it was good enough. we talked about the facebook trade for a long time. wait for them to report. pull the rip cord. facebook has held 47.5, 48 a number of times. i think you stay long facebook again. >> let's stay with linked in. >> you could see a little bit of that coming about as well. but people are selling these names figuring you know what? i have ridden this roller coaster to the top, to the
pinnacle here. let me just offload it and buy some twitter. i do believe in the concept. i think you saw it with facebook. >> we are seeing declines. baidu down. >> that is the level at 160. i think it ran out of gas and was going to run out of gas. they beat in july earnings. stock went up 10% that day. baidu owns. went up 100% the first day. i think it was. i think you saw people selling some baidu shares. and i think with baidu, you have to wait to improve on the numbers again. >> all right. got your first move tomorrow when we come back. stay tuned. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 trading inspires your life. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 life inspires your trading.
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it doesn't usually work that way with health care. but with unitedhealthcare, i get information on quality rated doctors, treatment options and estimates for how much i'll pay. that helps me, and my guys, make better decisions. i don't like guesses with my business, and definitely not with our health. innovations that work for you. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare. >> final trade time. mike? >> i like calendar put spreads in green mountain. >> weak earnings. >> bank of america. >> hertz, don't do it.
>> i think it should be higher. zillow. now it is higher. we have got ten seconds. >> i'm melissa lee. see you tomorrow at 5:00. don't go go anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm trying to save you a little money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. so call me 1-800-743-cnbc. where can we find the best growth right here right now? isn't that the be all and end all behind so much of we're looking for in the stock market? including today when the dow